The volume of global transport could double or even quadruple by 2050, according to a new study released by the 1102 International Transport Forum (ITF) at the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
The ITF study says GDP growth, freight intensity of economic activity and demographic change are important drivers of the predicted huge transport volume growth. But the study titled ITF Transport Outlook 2013 – Funding Transport, a report containing long-running scenarios for global transport activity and related CO2 emissions, claims policy choices are key determinants for the level of future increases.
China and India are seen by the ITF study as driving transport volume growth, with traffic increases set to be between 4 and 9 times the present level by2050. Across non-OECD countries, the stud claims surface passenger transport volumes could be four or five times higher in 2050 than today. For the industrialised OECD area, surface passenger travel (measured in vehicle-kilometres) is projected by the ITF to grow by 50-60%.
For surface freight volumes - i.e. goods transported by road and rail - ITF projections put growth at up to 430% in non-OECD emerging economies and up to 125% for the OECD area. With low GDP growth and a decoupling of economic growth and freight intensity, the growth figures there could be 100% and 40% respectively at the lower end, the ITF study suggests.
A published ITF summary of the report’s findings also adds, ‘Strong increases in transport volumes mean strong growth of emissions from transport. The baseline projection sees global CO2 emissions from surface transport grow by 80% by 2050. At the top and bottom end, the increase could be as high as 170% or as low as 30%. The outcome will depend not least on choosing the best long-term strategies to support growth and protect the environment.’ The ITF report summary stresses that policy choices are particularly important in the cities of emerging regions, as exploding urbanisation shapes global transport trends.
The ITF study says GDP growth, freight intensity of economic activity and demographic change are important drivers of the predicted huge transport volume growth. But the study titled ITF Transport Outlook 2013 – Funding Transport, a report containing long-running scenarios for global transport activity and related CO2 emissions, claims policy choices are key determinants for the level of future increases.
China and India are seen by the ITF study as driving transport volume growth, with traffic increases set to be between 4 and 9 times the present level by2050. Across non-OECD countries, the stud claims surface passenger transport volumes could be four or five times higher in 2050 than today. For the industrialised OECD area, surface passenger travel (measured in vehicle-kilometres) is projected by the ITF to grow by 50-60%.
For surface freight volumes - i.e. goods transported by road and rail - ITF projections put growth at up to 430% in non-OECD emerging economies and up to 125% for the OECD area. With low GDP growth and a decoupling of economic growth and freight intensity, the growth figures there could be 100% and 40% respectively at the lower end, the ITF study suggests.
A published ITF summary of the report’s findings also adds, ‘Strong increases in transport volumes mean strong growth of emissions from transport. The baseline projection sees global CO2 emissions from surface transport grow by 80% by 2050. At the top and bottom end, the increase could be as high as 170% or as low as 30%. The outcome will depend not least on choosing the best long-term strategies to support growth and protect the environment.’ The ITF report summary stresses that policy choices are particularly important in the cities of emerging regions, as exploding urbanisation shapes global transport trends.
